I’ll admit it: they hooked me again. The Jays started off with a blistering April, overcoming key injuries with outstanding performances by youngsters filling in big shoes, scoring runs at a league-leading pace, and shooting to the top of the AL. Even after sliding in May, I thought the Jays had the pieces for a nice summer run after sweeping the Phillies in Pennsylvania and taking two of three from the Reds. If they could just weather the storm until Roy Halladay returned, then it would only be a little bit longer until we might see Casey Janssen and even the spectre of Shawn Marcum back in the rotation. Then the Phillies won two games in totally different fashions to crush my spirit – one a blowout, the other a heartbreaker.

I know. It seems fickle to give up now, before even half the season is over. But as I posted three weeks ago, the stretch of interleague games the Jays faced in June would define their season. An impressive streak would give me the confidence that we would last in a playoff race until late in the year. Faltering meant another season filled with tantalizing agony and near-misses. The Jays went 8-10 this year, extending their streak of consecutive non-winning records in interleague play to infinity, and forcing me to stand by my claim that the Jays are cooked birds. It certainly doesn’t help that the Jays, despite being bolstered by the return of Roy Halladay to the lineup, lost their first game of the year against the Rays tonight. They’ve got two more against Tampa Bay before they hit the road for a ten-game stretch leading up until the All-Star Break.

Not even the trusty Doc could reverse the Jays’ bad juju.

Remember the last time Toronto was out of town for more than a week? They lost every single game. I’m not saying that’ll happen again. And I’m certainly not saying this team won’t put together a run or two in the next few months that will convince loyalists this team has enough juice to break a fifteen-year postseason dry spell. That’s OK; I will continue to support this club just as hard as I did before today. I’m simply giving up the illusion of tasting the playoffs.

Reality check: Toronto is a mere 4 games above .500, fourth in their division, seven games behind Boston in the East and throwing out a patchwork rotation as a result of a snakebitten pitching corps. They’re too often light in the bat and too many of their highly-paid players are underperforming drastically (I’d look in your direction, B.J. Ryan, but that might put you on the 15-day DL). True, the Jays are only currently 3.5 games behind the Yankees for the wild card spot – and that innovation to the game might be Toronto’s only saving grace this year, if there is a silver lining at all – but they’re looking at chasing two teams in their own division, plus other wannabes from the Central and West if they want that prize.

You also have to consider that this team is incredibly unlikely to open up the checkbook come trade deadline time to acquire a middle reliever or some lefty pop for the heart of the lineup. They’re more likely to unload a few of their flashier parts, revamp the existing roster, and reload for 2010 and beyond. It could be a lot worse. For instance, we could live in Pittsburgh.

Seriously though, the Jays need to identify the core parts of their roster (i.e., who is deemed “untouchable”) and let the rest of the league know that there’s no harm in kicking the tires on everyone else. I discussed this tonight with my buddy Devin (check his GUFS blog <a href=”http://indians.gearupforsports.com/blog/” target=new” here) who has been preparing the will for the 2009 Indians season since, oh, Cinco de Mayo. Being the savvy GM-by-proxy that he is, he has scouted the best prospects in the Tribe’s farm system, determined which of the existing members of the team can be built around, and entertained overtures for everyone else. He applauded the deal that sent Mark DeRosa to the Cardinals and brought back a pitching prospect and the always-entertaining “player to be named later.”

This is exactly what we must do. Since I don’t see anyone else stepping up to the plate, I’ll dissect this situation if I were handed the keys to the Toronto franchise.

Step 1: Identify the core
If I’m J.P. Ricciardi, I have to realize that the more people I make available, the more I can get in return. Still, you don’t want to necessarily give away franchise faces for sixty cents on the dollar simply because you’re having a frustrating season. I’m factoring in a couple things when I identify core players: age (especially in pitchers, where it seems like every year a dozen can’t-miss guys blow out their arms), potential and ceiling, current performance to date, and position/role played (overvaluing starting pitchers and undervaluing outfielders, for instance). I’m going to keep these guys: Roy Halladay (I don’t care if he’s 30+ and pitches approximately 6,000 innings a year, he’s iconic, durable, dependable, and most of all, loves playing for Toronto), Aaron Hill (I’m aware this season’s power numbers are flukish; I’m more impressed by his nearly-perfect fielding percentage, his high baseball IQ, and his OPB numbers), Adam Lind, and one of the injured party platter of starting pitchers amongst Janssen, McGowan, Marcum, and Litsch – probably one of the latter two, in fact. That’s it. When other GMs call and ask about those guys, I’m hanging up the phone before they can finish the sentence. I don’t even want to accidentally accept a deal in a drunken stupor, which would have a higher probability of happening if B.J. Ryan or Brian Wolfe takes the mound in a one-run, extra-inning game.

Step 2: Deal, deal, deal.
Once you’ve identified who you’re keeping, it makes it a lot easier to identify who you’re not. You’re going to get a better return on players who can contribute immediately to a pennant-hungry club looking for that piece to put them over the top. It helps if you’re willing to do business with teams like Boston, New York, Chicago, and Los Angeles who might give you slightly shoddier prospects in exchange for hastily taking on some bad contracts. Of course, this isn’t the NBA, so salary dumps won’t quite work out. That having been said, if I can get anyone to take the contract of B.J. Ryan, I’m jumping on that deal the way Octomom would jump on an unwatched shipment of collagen and lip gloss. Most teams aren’t looking to add a washed-out former closer, though. They’re more likely to inquire about a player like Alex Rios, a five-tool player who hasn’t quite put it all together and seems distracted or disinterested at times. This is the kind of guy that analysts will gush “just needs a change of scenery.” Fine by me. I love the guy, but if we can get a 1 or 1a pitching prospect for our third-best outfielder, I’m pulling the trigger. Same situation with Vernon Wells, except not quite. Apart from Halladay, he’s the face of the franchise. As such, he should probably command a slightly unreasonable return considering his age and current numbers – something like a top-tier pitching prospect (although not necessarily an ace) and one or two other considerable position prospects. I’d take just about anything for any of our middle relievers save for Downs, Accardo, and Carlson, for each of whom I’m inflating the asking price. Some contender will be desperate and overpay, more than likely a team on the fringe of securing a wild card (St. Louis or Milwaukee, depending on how the chips fall), or a team unexpectedly rising to the top of a division that wants to impress its fan base by staying there as long as possible (hello there, Rangers fans! Didn’t know you still existed.) so they overpay for role players. This is where a deal for a Scott Rolen or a Jason Frasor could happen.

Alex Rios: available to play on your team for the low, low price of a pitching prospect and change. Warning: does not come with requisite Adderall prescription.

Step 3: Promote the prospects
This step is a lot easier when you decimate your existing roster via step 2. Keep in mind we’ve already seen a lot of the Jays’ prize prospects a lot earlier than expected due to an absurd rash of injuries. Ricky Romero already looks like a candidate for a 2 or 3 spot in a rotation with a confidence common in young pitchers but a command that isn’t. Brett Cecil and Brad Mills need more seasoning and to be placed in the AAA oven a little longer. Travis Snider will come around as a serviceable corner outfielder. Along with Adam Lind, he’s the reason Rios is expendable given the right package. Beyond that, the best players are a few years away. Brian Dopirak looks like he could take over for Lyle Overbay. He’s currently hitting .315/18/58 at AA New Hampshire. I’m also intrigued by third basemen Kyle Phillips (.338, .854 OPS in split time at AAA Las Vegas) and CF Buck Coats (.321/4/34, 22 SB, also at Vegas). Toronto does have some intriguing pitchers at AA and just completed a pitcher-heavy draft, but those guys won’t be ready to compete this year or, in all likelihood, anytime before late 2011 at the earliest. The guys we’ve already seen the first three months of this year are the guys we’re leaning on to get through the next year or two, apart from any major-league-ready prospect we’d pick up in a deal.

It’s bleak(ish) right now, and save for a miraculous run to the wild card, I’m setting my sights for next year already. You can join me if you too are cynical, or you can cling to some sort of far-fetched scenario where Toronto is playing in October. In any event, you have to admit, this is not a crew that’s winning a World Series. Since that’s the only goal of any team, you have to find a way to get that done, even if it means making risky deals.