Leaving Camden Yards last Wednesday, watching the Jays suffer their ninth consecutive loss (all on the road), I thought to myself, “I should have left for vacation sooner.” At least then I could have sheltered myself from the burden of being the lone Jays optimist during that brutal road trip. An episode of Baseball Tonight categorized the Jays as “pretenders.” USA Today declared the early season success of Toronto as “smoke and mirrors.” The best anyone could muster, it seemed, was a meek offering that every team will have a losing streak – it was better that Toronto got theirs out of the way in May instead of September (feel free to scream now, Mets fans).

As I hid in the obscurity of central North Carolina, the Jays scrapped together a few wins, taking two of three from the Red Sox and Royals (and losing two of three to the Angels). The ship seems to have righted itself, and it certainly does not hurt to have Ricky Romero and Casey Janssen back from the DL. One can only hope Jesse Litsch’s return is similarly forthcoming – I’m not sure how much longer Brian Tallet or Scott Richmond can last.

A tough 4-game road trip to AL-West leading Texas lurks, although we’ve already taken the first. After that, interleague play resumes with five series: a weekend matchup at home agains the Marlins, a six-game roadie to Philadelphia and Washington, ending with a six games at home against the Reds and the Phillies.

Mark my words – these five series will determine the rest of the season for the Jays. They’re not far off at this point, six games above .500 and only 2.5 back of the division-leading Yankees. At this point last year, the ballclub was 33-33 and tied for last in the division, seven games back and no real threat to compete. I know the Jays have only played a couple series against Boston and New York and they have yet to play a single game against Tampa (what’s up with that, MLB schedule makers?) but by the time interleague wraps up, we’ll have a good indicator whether or not this team is going to give us heart palpitations in September or whether we’ll be turning our attention to NFL training camps sooner than expected. Here are three reasons why the Jays’ interleague performance matters this year:

1. The Jays have consistently underperformed during interleague play compared to their peers. Since the inception of interleague play in 1997, the AL has won roughly 52% of all matchups. The Jays are slogging along at a .479 clip. The last five years alone include these records in interleague play: 8-10, 9-9, 9-9, 8-10, 8-10 for a gross record of 42-48 (.470 winning %). That stretch includes a 27-18 home record and a 15-30 road record. Obviously the lack of a DH and playing in unfamiliar parks is a detriment to this team. It cannot be the same this year. The Jays have already been swept on the road by Atlanta. They get two more road series in Philadelphia and Washington. The former should be a familiar site: Toronto has played a series there each of the last two years. The latter is home to the worst team in baseball. If the Jays can manage four wins out of six games, they’ll have accrued their best road interleague record in over half a decade.

2. These five series will act as a barometer for roster tinkering. Remember, this was the only team in the offseason not to sign a single free agent to a major-league contract. Sure, Kevin Millar earned a spot on the bench, but he hardly counts as a major acquisition. Most of the Jays upgrades came internally. General manager J.P. Ricciardi has gone on the record saying that if the Jays are contenders near this year’s non-waiver trade deadline (July 31), he will not be afraid to ask ownership for some money to go out and make a move or two. By the time interleague ends, it will be the beginning of July. Teams will know where they stack up by the time the league shuts down for the All-Star break, and we can figure out quite readily who the buyers and sellers are. A promising interleague stretch might pave the way for a middle reliever or left-handed thumper. Another dismal stretch like the streak the Jays just weathered means Toronto will probably look to dump salary (anyone want a beat-up former closer with a bloated ERA? I’m looking in your direction again, Mets fans).
(Side thought: Two years ago, Toronto and San Francisco were locked in serious discussion whether or not to trade Alex Rios for Tim Lincecum straight up. As much as I love Rios, this is one of those times I would love to have a time machine so I could travel to the Bay Area in 2007 and slip something in Brian Sabean’s drink. Imagine a rotation sporting Halladay and Lincecum at the top. Now I have to get a towel to clean up this saliva.)

There’s a bit of a drop-off in talent from this guy to, say, Brian Tallet.

3. No one has distanced themselves from the pack. The NL West is a bit of a different story, where the Dodgers can clinch that division with a win tomorrow. Just kidding, but really, no one is going to catch them. In the AL, only one team (Baltimore) is more than seven games back. With three and a half months left, there’s plenty of time to make a move. Moreover, parity (or mediocrity, depending on which side of the fence you sit) has swarmed the MLB this year. Did you know that over half the teams in baseball (17 out of 30) are plus or minus 5 games from .500? Only three teams – the Yankees, the Phillies, and the aforementioned Dodgers – are ten games or more above .500 and only the putrid Nationals can claim they’re more than ten games below .500. It’s a big, messy stew right now, and more teams than ever can legitimately dream about a pennant in mid-June. Baseball has made plenty of screw-ups over the past decade, but giving optimism to franchises like Texas, Toronto, and Cincinnati is a wonderful thing.

Toronto is 33-27 and 2.5 back. They’re tied for the most home wins in the AL. Only two teams in all of baseball have more overall wins. They have an ace, young talent, and a World Series-winning manager. The clock is ticking, but this team has the right components to keep on competing through the rest of the year.

So says the optimist, anyway.